Even as the housing-price runup slows, middle-class buyers - in the West and elsewhere – are still struggling to find a home they can afford where they want to live.Homeownership remains
❓ Are we Inching Closer to Recession 📊 Barry Hoey, Broker Owner 🍀 239RealEstateDeals.Com LLC ☘ Southwest Florida 🌴
Dated: August 5 2022
The next downturn may be different than the last. Look to commercial real estate for clues about the direction of the economy. from an article by Lawrence Yun
The U.S. gross domestic product contracted in the first quarter by 1.5%. The stock market has been tumbling. Inflation is stubbornly high. The Federal Reserve plans to continue raising interest rates. Pending home sales have fallen for six straight months and are now trending slightly below 2019 levels. The economy, in short, is on the verge of a recession.
Yet, it will not be a straightforward recession. Despite hiring freezes at tech firms and recent job cuts among mortgage lenders as refinance business dries up, the bigger problem for the economy is not a lack of jobs but rather a shortage of workers. Statistically, there are two job openings for each unemployed person. That’s why wages are up an average of 5.5% from a year ago, to nearly $32 per hour nationwide. However, inflation is gobbling the increase up with an 8% rise in the cost of living.
A recession typically means bad news for commercial real estate. But this time, the condition of the commercial market may be an indicator about the direction of the overall economy. Demand for apartments and single-family rentals is booming because of consistent job gains and affordability challenges in the For Sale market. Low vacancy rates, though, have pushed up average rents significantly this year. Demand for warehouse space has surged as retailers look to avoid supply-chain disruptions. The retail sector is recovering, with more fitness gyms, nail salons, and restaurants popping up in the suburbs. Hotel bookings, air travel, and park attendance, are above pre-pandemic levels. Consumer spending in the GDP calculation was up a solid 3.1%, even after adjusting for inflation. Weak trade numbers—exports were down and imports were up—brought the fall in GDP. Homeowners, after all, have accumulated sizable housing wealth: $75,100 in the last two years and $155,400 over the past five years. The stock market is going through a painful correction, though the broad S&P 500 index is up by 70% from five years ago. That’s why total net household wealth has essentially doubled from 10 years ago.
The office market is another story. There’s no strong desire on the part of employees to return to their downtown offices. Google’s GPS tracker shows robust movement just about everywhere except in office locations during work hours. Some form of working from home will be a permanent feature of the post–COVID-19 economy. This is also the reason traffic jams are happening more often on weekends than on weekdays. Welcome to the new normal.
Housing Inventory Edges Up
Total housing inventory at the end of April 2022 amounted to 1.03 million units, up 10.8% from March but down 10.4% from one year ago. At the current sales pace, there was a 2.2-month supply, up from 1.9 months in March and down from 2.3 months in April 2021.
Article compiled by Lawrence Yun. Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of REALTORS®
Yun oversees and is responsible for a wide range of research activity for the association including NAR’s Existing Home Sales statistics, Affordability Index, and Home Buyers and Sellers Profile Report. He regularly provides commentary on real estate market trends for its 1.3 million REALTOR® members.
Dr. Yun creates NAR’s forecasts and participates in many economic forecasting panels, among them the Blue Chip Council and the Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey. He also participates in the Industrial Economists Discussion Group at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. He appears regularly on financial news outlets, is a frequent speaker at real estate conferences throughout the United States, and has testified before Congress. Dr. Yun has appeared as a guest on CSPAN’s Washington Journal and is a regular guest columnist on the Forbes website and The Hill, an “inside the beltway” publication on public affairs.
Dr. Yun received his undergraduate degree from Purdue University and earned his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland at College Park.
👉 The Hoey Team 🍀 239RealEstateDeals.Com LLC ☘ serves all of Lee County and Collier County, including the Gulf Coast Islands here in Southwest Florida where we had 7 of 10 hot market projections for 2022. We Directly Help Sellers and We Directly Help Buyers; sometimes representing both in the same transacton with everyones best interests in mind.
Recently as Listing Agents, Barry & Kim with the Hoey Team; 239RealEstateDeals.Com LLC ☘ helped a number of sellers who had been in Foreberance and in similar situations. We were able to get all of them to a "very good place"; worry free & stress free; with excellent end results for them. Also, Kim is a certified stager which helps us additionally on all of our listings.
We help / serve people in many different situations; everybody's situation is different even in a hot sellers market as we recently had.
If you know someone needing help; or simply wants advice, please have them reach out to us in confidence: 239-360-5527; anytime; we continue to achieve excellent results in the communities where we list and sell utilizing our Experience, Systems and Tools.
Sadly for some time we see a number of sellers who are not keeping up with the changes locally; putting their homes on the market and selling them for than what the market is still able to bear at this time. Additionlly; selling a home the first day on MLS may not guarantee the best price for the seller as many homeowners had been doing. Please call Barry at 239-360-5527 for more information on this.
We offer a confidential / private, custom Concierge Service, if their property needs work 🍀 For every property situation, we have a solution / solutions with a proven track record ☘
As people continue to move and relocate to the general areas of Lee & Collier Counties from other parts of the United States, it is important that we are able to directly serve all of the area; which we do, efficently. We have the ability to offer many different Choices and Lifestyles all of which are in abundance here in SW FLA, 239RealEstateDeals.Com LLC has blanket coverage of Southwest Florida and most of Florida for that matter by being active members of four different MLS systems.
Inventory remains steady, but low overall; we do continue to list and market new South Florida property listings to the marketplace and we sell many different type homes; Resale & New Construction; Multigenerational Family Compounds, Regular Single Family Homes, Villas, Townhomes and all Condo types, from low rise, to waterfront high rise right on the Beach / Gulf Coast.
We continue to see many people planning ahead, and buying that second home now, rather than waitiang as they were planning to do; especially with Snowmads and Zoombirds working from home. Previously we had Snowbirds; interesting how terminology keeps changing / evolving.
Interest rates increases are sadly driving many buyers out of the market place, we do see price reductions on some overpriced / under marketed listings. Even with the recent 0.75% interest rate hike, buyers are still looking, though not as many as before.
Low inventory is still a chalenge for active buyers who are not prepared; but if prepared you are ahead of the game; ask how we can help with all of that. We do see more listings coming to the market here in Southwest florida, so, that is good.
We recently got a number amazing deals for buyers; even in this recent Hot Sellers Market; and we are working on others as our market shifts. There are deals out there; if you work with us, we will definitely find them for you.
For those relocating to Florida, we are pleased to be able to assist homeowners in other parts of the United States who need to sell to buy here; please reach out today for more information and how you can have a smooth, non-stressful transition / relocation.
At our Real Estate Team; Hoey Team ☘ we have been succesfully working 100% virtually / remotely for the past number of years as we continue to grow; i'm thankful that we already had systems in place to better help sellers and buyer with goal posts continually moving within our industry / profession.
Article content from FR (Florida REALTORS) Newsletter Magazine, and from other sources including Hoey Team, 239RealEstateDeals.Com LLC & Freddie Mac / Fannie Mae - Make sure to ask us for more details; Call 239-360-5527 ☘
For those Living in or Visiting Southwest Florida wanting additional resources, or a list of places to see / visit: www.SWFL-Events.Com Feel free to share this resource page with others 🌴
On our VIRTUAL OPEN HOUSE Page you may WATCH Detailed 3D Walkthrough Tours for all our LISTINGS right HERE: ? www.239VT.com
For more Real Estate related information, or if you have questions on any aspect of Buying, Selling, Upsizing, Downsizing, Moving within or Relocating to or from Florida (the number one state for people to move to), or on any aspect of the Real Estate Market, Locally, Nationally or Internationally, please let us know, we can help, we can address / answer your questions, and we are always available to help you or someone you know.. Our business is based on referrals from past customers, friends, and Realtors.
P.S. --> If You'd like for us to create a Video Tour for ANY of the Properties on our website, just CLICK "Video Request Button"; from property details: https://HoeyTeam.239RealEstateDeals.Com
We do not discriminate on price, we help homeowners and renters in all price ranges; Click Here for more information on the Hoey Team ☘ and what we do to help or visit www.239RealEstateDeals.Com anytime.
Also; please check out the other blogs, and tabs to many other Links, Updates, Reports & Stats that we have here on our informational website.
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